Gas vehicles can stick around, but almost every manufacturer is moving over to electrification.
As expected, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the Biden Administration have announced much more stringent emissions regulations that will take effect in 2027 and go until 2032.
If adopted, the new proposed regulations will require a 13% annual cut in pollution and a 56% reduction in projected fleet average emissions over the 2026 requirements. To reach these numbers, it's estimated that 67% of new light-duty vehicles and 46% of medium-duty cars sold in 2032 would have to be electric or use some other non-polluting energy source.
Although strict, the regulations stop short of requiring all new vehicles being sold to be electric. However, with most car companies already planning mostly electric lineups by 2030, it appears the desired effect is still being achieved. The EPA is also proposing stricter emissions standards for heavy-duty trucks into 2032.
"By proposing the most ambitious pollution standards ever for cars and trucks, we are delivering on the Biden-Harris Administration's promise to protect people and the planet, securing critical reductions in dangerous air and climate pollution and ensuring significant economic benefits like lower fuel and maintenance costs for families," said EPA Administrator Michael S. Regan
The Biden Administration says this proposal would have three significant benefits for the consumer. The first is that 10 billion tons of CO2 emissions will be avoided by 2055 if the proposed rules are adopted, which is more than twice the annual US C02 emissions in 2022.
The second and third benefits would then be directly for the consumer. The Administration says that the transition to technologies that reduce fuel and maintenance costs would save the average consumer $12,000 over the life of their vehicle and consequently help the US to save approximately $12 billion in reduced reliance on oil imports allowing that money to be better spent elsewhere.
All of these rules are performance-based, meaning if car companies can cut pollution in some other way, gas-powered sales are still available through 2032. The goal is to hit 82 grams per mile of CO2 produced in the 2032 model, down from 161 grams per mile of C02 produced in 2026.
What this means for the average consumer is if the proposed regulations go into effect over the next 10 years, the likelihood your next new car will be electric or at least electrically assisted will rise dramatically. Vehicles like the Ford F-150 Lightning and Hummer EV will have to make way for many cheaper models if automakers want to have a chance.
To put this in perspective, the only company currently meeting the 2032 standards is Tesla.
The EPA plans to hold a hearing about the proposed rulemaking and invites groups and companies to testify and comment on everything. We imagine automakers that already believe President Biden's goal of 50% EV sales by 2030 is too strict won't take too kindly to it, and not for unfound reasons.
A complete transformation like this will take monumental resource allocation and infrastructure building that hasn't been seen for decades. The administration has invested over $10 billion to establish a wider electric charging network. However, there's still concern about what our electrical grid can handle.
On top of this, automakers point to the difficulty in acquiring the rare materials needed to build the vehicles as major factors outside their control. Not to mention the facilities required to produce the batteries and components here in North America necessary to make pricing competitive.
There may be lawmakers out there that try to stop the whole thing dead in its tracks, so only time will tell what our future holds.
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