The math is pretty simple.
Ford has a hit on its hands despite not having built a single production version yet. The F-150 Lightning has managed to draw around 160,000 reservations, far exceeding initial expectations. That's why Ford decided to double production with a $250 million investment that should increase production capacity to 80,000 units per year. The current plan is to build 15,000 in 2022, 55,000 in 2023, and 80,000 in 2024. Beginning in 2025, the second-generation model will supposedly launch, riding on an all-new platform instead of the modified architecture shared with the standard F-150. Those production numbers might sound impressive but they're probably not good enough.
Electrek has learned that the 160k reservation count does not include commercial/fleet buyers as part of the "Ford Pro" program. We're talking specifically about the entry-level $39,900 "Pro" trim.
The Blue Oval won't give preferential treatment to those who buy a fully-loaded $90k or so Platinum trim, but rather aims to build a mix of trim levels every year. Somehow, it'll need to build enough fleet-ready examples to satisfy those crucial customers. Ford hasn't provided an exact count of what fleet buyers have ordered, but the math here is very simple. Demand is going to be much higher than supply. Expect this thing to be sold out for perhaps its entire first-generation production run.
This isn't exactly a bad problem to have but it could be problematic once other EV truck rivals from GM, Stellantis, and even Tesla hit the scene in the very near future.
Ford may have been the first to launch a series production battery-electric pickup, but it needs to find a way to increase production yet again. Otherwise, it'll not only have frustrated customers but the competition could find itself in the ideal position to lure them away. That's assuming they don't have production issues of their own, of course.
One possible solution for Ford is the F-150 Hybrid, which has received rave reviews. Though not fully electric, it does have some of the same features as the Lightning, like the Pro Power Onboard generator. Hopefully, Ford will find a way to increase F-150 Lightning production yet again. Doing so is now more important than ever.