If new legislation is passed.
The push for carbon neutrality in the automotive world is in full swing, as governments and big industries start banding together to fight climate change. In the US, new emissions laws are looking to sever American's love affair with big trucks such as the Ford F-250, and President Biden plans to cut emissions in half by 2030. Europe is on an even harder line, with many of its auto manufacturers announcing electric-only lineups for the near future. That reality might come sooner than most would think, as Euro 7 emissions proposals look to cut the life of internal combustion engines short. According to the proposal, the new legislation would ban the sale of gas-powered cars by 2026.
This date is a significant one, as it means ICE cars will be banned in Europe a whole four years before the UK moves to implement the same rules. The first proposal for the hardline legislation was made last year by the European Commission's Consortium for Ultra Low Vehicle Emissions (Clove) of engineering consultants. The proposed legislation, if passed, will at the very least make buying gas-powered vehicles economically unviable in the EU.
"The ACEA believes that the emission limit scenarios presented by Clove, coupled with the suggested new testing conditions, would in practice result in a situation very similar to a ban of vehicles powered by an internal combustion engine, including hybrid electric vehicles," the trade body said late last year.
This will naturally put high-performance cars on the endangered species list, but European manufacturers such as Ferrari and Lamborghini are still pouring money into gasoline-powered cars.
Under Clove's proposals, ICE cars will feature a multi-stage catalytic system including a 2.0-liter particulate filter and a pair of traditional three-way catalysts. Another suggestion from Clove is to fit each car with a diagnostic system that ensures that cars meet emissions targets for up to 150,000 miles. Current Euro 6d regulations allow for variations in emissions during unladen testing, cold testing, etc, but Clove is proposing a massive slash across the board.
The European Automobile Manufacturers Association is kicking back at the suggested measurement methodology and says that the proposed legislation "would mean vehicles being tested in a completely unrepresentative way that would combine all of the worst cases."
Current feedback from European governments and affected parties is that under current controls, the majority of vehicle emissions are caused by brakes and tires, making any push for further limitations on ICE powerplants nugatory.