Not just in the US, but globally.
If anyone working for GM, Ford or any other mainstream automaker is reading, consider this a warning: the Tesla Model 3 and upcoming Model Y could wind up consisting of half of the global EV market by 2020. Electrek discovered a report from Morgan Stanley's research wing released only a week ago that predicts the rapid ascension for both of Tesla's entry-level models, even though the Model Y isn't even scheduled to launch until late 2019 or early 2020. How can this be so?
The Morgan Stanley blue paper tracked the progression of EVs over the past few years, and then made some projections regarding future growth of the technology within the passenger car sector. Low and behold, EVs are predicted to be a major player. Morgan Stanley then utilized data from the Insurance Highway Institute (IHS) to help them conclude that the Model 3 and Model Y could end up representing half of the EV market by 2020. The Model Y will ride on the Model 3's platform, so its development and consequent launch won't take too long to happen now that Model 3 production is underway.
Another important factor Morgan Stanley took into consideration was Tesla CEO Elon Musk's ambitious plan to increase the automaker's annual production to 500,000 vehicles in 2018 (including the Model 3). What's particularly interesting about this report is that its projections are well below Tesla's. So why is Tesla and, for that matter, Morgan Stanley, so confident about its future EV market prospects? Because Tesla is the only automaker solely committed to EVs. GM, Ford, VW – you name it – only offer EVs as low-volume models. But what about the currently best-selling EV on the planet, the Nisan Leaf?
With an upcoming redesign, Nissan would surely have big global plans for it, right? Yes, but, again, Nissan has a huge lineup of conventionally powered vehicles to also deal with, whereas Tesla is in the unique position of being able to remain focused on one type of powertrain tech. Tesla is already laying all of the groundwork for increased production by expanding its Fremont factory and its battery-producing Gigafactory. No other automaker, big or small, can make such claims.