They aren't going to happen this year.
This has not been a normal year for buying a new or used vehicle. Heck, "normal" flew out the window a year and a half ago when the pandemic struck planet Earth. Adjusting to a new normal requires time. Fortunately, demand for vehicles is stronger than ever. Unfortunately, that demand far outweighs supplies. We're all familiar with the ongoing semiconductor chip shortage (part of that lovely pandemic aftermath) that's forced factory downtimes which result in dwindling dealership inventories.
Because of this, finding those typical end-of-model-year deals will be nearly impossible this coming fall and winter. A study of national dealer inventory figures and rightly concluded year-end deals will not be in abundance.
Take, for example, the very popular Kia Telluride. It appears there are only 66 examples of 2021 models left in stock nationwide. The good news is for Telluride shoppers is that the MY 2022s are now on sale. However, don't expect to see significant discounts and other incentives. Along with the Telluride, the 2021 Seltos, K5, Soul, Sportage, Stinger, and Hyundai Tucson are all sold out. Kia recently informed dealers it'll end lease incentives on most remaining 2021 models starting early next month.
The data shows these two South Korean brands are more affected by a lack of 2021 vehicles than other brands. This doesn't mean rivals aren't in a similar situation.
Honda has sold out of the 2021 Odyssey - no surprise since the MY22 arrived early - and Insight while Toyota has been wiped clean of the 2021 Prius and Prius Prime. For now, neither brand is offering incentives for the 2022s. So, what does this all mean for car shoppers? Simple. You'll likely end up paying more. Not only are automakers less likely to introduce attractive incentives, but there's also still the annoying issue of dealer markups.
Bear in mind this could also backfire on them. If enough consumers believe they can't get a good deal, they could hold off buying entirely for the next several months. Until the chip crisis settles down, expect the low inventories and lack of good deals to continue.